Text | "China Economic Weekly" special writer Chen Jiulin recently, European, American and Russian parties have launched a war without smoke around energy.
First, the West initiated economic sanctions against Russia and frozen Russia in Western assets. After that, Russia announced that when it supplied natural gas to a non -friendly country and region to Russia, it was used to settle in rubles.
These unfriendly countries, including EU member states, the United States, Australia, Canada, etc. The two parties are opposite: German Energy Minister Altmel said that the Seven Kingdoms Group (G7) refused to pay Russia’s natural gas and other energy resources with rubles; Abramov, vice chairman of the Economic Policy Committee of the Russian Federal Commission, responded immediately, which would definitely lead to natural gas Supply interruption, because Russia cannot supply natural gas for free. On April 6, the United Kingdom announced that it would impose a new round of sanctions on Russia, including will stop importing coal and oil from Russia before the end of 2022, and end natural gas imports as soon as possible.
This energy -based economic war has further relying on Russia’s oil and natural gas Europe to further become the unjustness of the United States arch fire Russia.
1 Europe has always relying on Russian energy. As of 2020, among the global proven fossil energy reserves, European oil and natural gas reserves accounted for 1%and 2%, respectively, the lowest in the world.
In terms of winter heating and power generation and industrial production, Europe mainly uses natural gas.
According to the US Energy Intelligence Agency (EIA) data, the import proportion of imports in European natural gas consumption in 2020 reached%. On the one hand, it is Europe with lack of oil and gas, and on the other hand, it is the oil -rich Russian. For geographical and economic considerations, Europe imports a lot of energy from Russia.
Data show that European imported crude oil accounts for 48%of Russian crude oil exports. More than 75%of oil imports from Estonia, Poland, Slovakia, and Finland come from Russia, and the refineries in Germany, the Netherlands and Poland also depend on imported crude oil from Russia. In terms of natural gas, Russia is the largest natural gas supply country in Europe. Nearly half of the natural gas imported from Europe comes from Russia. Natural gas sold to Europe accounts for one -third of Russia’s natural gas exports.
55%of the natural gas imports in Germany, 50%of hard coal and 30%of oil are from Russia. Astora, a subsidiary of the Russian energy giant Gazprom, has more than 1/3 of German gas storage facilities; most of the electricity comes from France with nuclear energy, fossil fuel fuel Relying on Russia. It is precisely because of the high dependence of energy that it is difficult for Europe to reach an agreement on the issue of sanctions on Russia.
This gives the United States a chance. At present, US natural gas exports account for the second world, and data shows that the United States has become the country with the highest single -day crude oil output in the world.
Theoretically, if Europe gets rid of the dependence on Russia’s energy, the United States may take over the European energy market and replace Russia to become the largest energy supply country in Europe. Before the outbreak of Russia and Ukraine’s conflict, the United States had always obstructed Russia to the Beixi No. 2 project to Europe. Recently, the US natural gas exports to Europe have reached 13.1 billion cubic feet (about 100 million cubic meters). According to Bloomberg and other reports, after the US Western sanctions, Russian oil companies sell crude oil to the market in a way below the market price, and the United States imported crude oil to Russia with more than 100,000 barrels per day. This is the highest number since 8 months.
In other words, during the Russian -Ukraine conflict, in the global market, the United States acquired energy from Russia at low prices, and then sold to Europe at a higher price, making a lot of money from it.
2 The U.S. Russia seize the European energy market, unlike consumers in the general market competition, because of the supply of greater than seeking to benefit consumers, Europe not only failed to make a profit, but was deeply harmed. After the Russian -Ukraine conflict on February 24, the base of the Dutch TTF natural gas futures was regarded as the base of the natural gas price direction of the European natural gas price direction. For new highs since June 2014 and September 2014, European natural gas prices once rose by 52%. The international consulting agency Woodmackenzie said that if the Russian natural gas supply has been interrupted for a long time, it will not be restored until European natural gas inventory this summer, and the next winter will face the catastrophic situation of natural gas inventory, and the price of gas will be outrageous. The International Energy Agency stated that the Russian -Ukraine military conflict would stifle energy supply and brings months or even years of pain to Europe.
It is conceivable to be imaginatively dependent on the degree of affected by energy imports.
On March 8, as a major upgrade of the Western economic sanctions on Russia, the United States and Britain announced the embargo on Russia’s energy. On this day, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak said that oil prices rose and European consumers were the main victims. If the West really imposed sanctions on Russia’s oil, Russia made a good preparation for adjusting the European market exports. Russia also warns that if the West prohibits imported oil from Russia, the global market will suffer catastrophic consequences, and oil prices may climb to $ 300 or even higher per barrel, and claim that the supply of Northern No. 1 natural gas is interrupted.
Just after Russia requested the request to settle natural gas with rubles, the price of rubles that continued to depreciate began to rise.
When the lowest point of the ruble was in the conflict, 10,000 rubles against RMB 498; after the request of the ruble settlement required, 10,000 rubles against 715 yuan, pulling up 43%.
This result enhances the confidence of Russia and the United States and the West. In the words of the Kremlin spokesman Peskov, we will not do charity, and we will not be able to pay for natural gas without paying for European customers. Norwegian Energy Research and Commercial Intelligence Company Rystadnergy pointed out that Russian energy supply is facing major risks, including intentional restrictions on exports, which will allow global oil supply to be in short supply to crisis; Sanctions may cause the international oil market to face the largest supply crisis in decades. 3 games are obviously continuing.
After the Russian ruble settlement order was issued, the United States and the European Union reached an emergency agreement: by the end of 2022, the United States will provide at least 15 billion cubic meters of liquefied natural gas to Europe. Before 2030, the United States provides at least 50 billion cubic meters of liquefied natural gas to Europe. Essence Biden also announced a special working group with the European Commission Chairman Feng Draine. The main goal of the working group is to achieve the diversification of liquefied natural gas supply. According to the White House, the United States will strive to ensure the safety of Ukraine and the European Union, prepare for the winter of next year and next year, and support the EU to end its dependence on Russia’s fossil fuel. Of course, the use of Petrochemical Energy also has a price, not only the price may increase by about 30%, but the transportation time will increase by 90 days. International observer predict that the Russian and Ukraine War will have a huge impact on European energy transformation.
Taking Germany as an example, after the U.S. and Russia’s energy game in Europe, Germany demanded or suspended or suspended from exiting nuclear power and coal -fired power generation plans to become increasingly louder; renewable energy is the point of view of strategic assets and is highly recognized in Germany.
Therefore, the trend of the European energy structure under the conflict of Russia and Ukraine is not necessarily abandoning Russia to invest in the United States. In the long run, it will accelerate Europe to clean energy. The US -Russian energy game will also deeply reshape the global energy market: the Middle East, mainly Saudi Arabia and Iran, may gradually reduce the proportion of energy US dollars; many European countries continue to find alternative energy supply countries. It is expected that Qatar and other Middle East countries will expand the European market in the future ; The United States is the world’s largest energy consumption country, the production cost of shale oil and gas is high, the export transportation time for Europe is long, and the supply of supply to Europe is not strong. Realizing & hell; & hellip; Since the United States and Western sanctions in Russia, the original world energy pattern has changed significantly, at least in conceptual changes. In the past, France, where the yellow vest movement occurred slightly, was slightly adjusted. With the sharp rise in oil prices today, it actually accepted the reality calmly. During the Russian and Ukraine conflict, the price of cloth oil soared.
Can Europe get rid of Russian energy dependence? Right now, the United States, which is poured by the war, watched the tiger fighting and the fortune of the war, the EU watched the oil and gas and the price of oil and gas soared. The European Commission’s climate action and energy affairs spokesman Mcfis said the truth: Before 2027, we will still rely on Russian carbon fuel. (This article was published in "China Economic Weekly", No. 7, 2022).