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Gloss Media Analysis: Will the "New Cold War" lead to "70s deadllation"?

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On November 5, the French "Ferro" website published on November 2nd to publish the report of the business column writer and edited – Pierre Luban said, whether the new cold war indicates the influx of the 1970s.Will expansion will come back?The full text is as follows: Since the disasters from the US, the situation has become the same as the 1970s.In the context of geopolitical tension, oil impact has emerged in 1973 and 1979.The energy prices currently appear soared, and they echoed.The cold war between Washington and Moscow was in the peak.Some politicalists (such as Dominic Mozzi, France) now think that the new cold war begins.

Whether the economy and political tension is intertwined, will it lead to a lagma with a 70s characteristics?The term of the lack is specially used to describe the risk of economic activity and the sharp rise in the increase in consumption (more than 10% in certain years).

The big ease or the end is ended in France and Western Europe, and the petroleum shock marks the sudden end of Glory 30 years (1946-1975). Although for the French, the 1989 Berlin Wall collapsed, the nearly 30 years of unconstrained free trade did not talk about more glory, but for globalization, it marked a golden age. The result is that inflation has almost disappeared, and economists call it a big ease (1990-2020).

However, this balance has been questioned.

Whether we should worry that the relevance of the cold war will indicate the return of lack in the 1970s? Reference Message November 5 Report of the French "Ferro" website published on November 2nd to publish the newspaper economy column writer and editor-Pierre Luban said, whether the new cold war predicts the 20th century 70 The inflation of the age will come back? The full text is as follows: Since the disasters from the US, the situation has become the same as the 1970s.

In the context of geopolitical tension, oil impact has emerged in 1973 and 1979. The energy prices currently appear soared, and they echoed.

The cold war between Washington and Moscow was in the peak. Some politicalists (such as Dominic Mozzi, France) now think that the new cold war begins. Whether the economy and political tension is intertwined, will it lead to a lagma with a 70s characteristics? The term of the lack is specially used to describe the risk of economic activity and the sharp rise in the increase in consumption (more than 10% in certain years).

The big ease or the end is ended in France and Western Europe, and the petroleum shock marks the sudden end of Glory 30 years (1946-1975).

Although for the French, the 1989 Berlin Wall collapsed, the nearly 30 years of unconstrained free trade did not talk about more glory, but for globalization, it marked a golden age.

The result is that inflation has almost disappeared, and economists call it a big ease (1990-2020).

However, this balance has been questioned.

Whether we should worry that the relevance of the cold war will indicate the return of lack in the 1970s? All of this is starting from a boring trade quaternary, Trump has ordered a comprehensive improvement of China’s finance, and then retaliated measures were subsequently adopted in the spring of 2018.

Joe Biden is ruthening Obama’s return to Asia Pacific with Trump.

Trading war has evolved into a true cold war. The economic impact is far more than the first cold war. The Cold War began in 1947, the introduction of Dulunsianism in 1947, lasted for more than 40 years. Since joining the World Trade Organization since 2001, China has doubled in the global economy. The WTO said that in contrast to the Soviet Union, China is now the world’s largest exporter, but also the largest supplier of goods in the United States.

Globalization has been politically intervened in the United States’s manufacturing backward strategy and the big trend over the past 30 years. Under the leadership of the WTO, the general reduction of tariffs will make the global market flow, and companies are no longer restricted by national boundaries. One of the most influential wiskins in Washington, Peterson International Economics Research, believes that 80% of world trade is carried out through the production chain of multinational corporation management.

International trade in intermediate products is almost twice as much as the trade. Since the beginning of 2020, the international trade in the era of the era gradually restarted, and the price between Shanghai and Los Angeles was 8 times. Sebastian, head of French International Prospect Research and Information Center, is proposed: In a long time, pursuit of minimum cost has always been the only decision-making standard, and now it may no longer dominate.

If national and companies may give up this goal due to political reasons, then it will reach increase production cost. For example, France has to import almost all masks in 2020, which cost nearly 6 billion euros, 3/4 from Asia! Obviously, reconfiguring the production line is difficult. Similarly, American companies re-move to labor, low-cost neighboring, Mexico, more, is more theoretical, not practical actions. A report of the Peterson International Economics Institute pointed out that the ink cross-border investment has not only launched since 2018, but also in accordance with the standard of innovation, Mexico’s ranking is far less than Vietnam, Malaysia or Thailand, although it is the North American Free Trade Agreement and Members of the OECD. Countries changing priorities due to reloading of protectionism, the urgent needs of defense and political factors returning to economic decision-making processes, and countries’ priorities are changing. Leftiyia Padgski, a strategy and research person in France, said: After 20 years of fire in full swing, people feel that the end of the international division of labor is based on cost. Some products (such as medicines) will result in rising prices if re-relocating natives. The geolble gentleness has lasted for 30 years, so that the Eurozone has to struggle with general contraction in nearly 10 years (only 1% annually), is this situation possible to continue? In the mainstline of the Atlantic, economists, the former banker Stephen Roch is one of the people who sound alarm. He believes that the chaos of the international production chain is associated with new crown viruses, geopolitical backgrounds, plus energy prices (partly caused by political reasons), may result in inflation in the 1970s.

Roch accused the Biden government to walk too fast in the relocation of the supply chain. In June 202, the White House released a safety review report on the supply chain. Roch believes that danger is that any geopeous strategy associated with the Cold War will make the temporary shortage of banks that countries (including the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank), and then countries have to devote them into a hot battle against inflation. It is like it is the same for half a century.